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Faculty Research Working Paper Series
William W. Hogan
Raymond Plank Professor of Global Energy Policy
phone: (617)495-1317
fax: (617)496-1520
A Hazard Rate Analysis of Mirant’s Generating Plant Outages in California.
Harvey, Scott M., William W. Hogan, and Todd Schatzki. "A Hazard Rate Analysis of Mirant’s Generating Plant Outages in California." KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP05-027, March 2005.
Abstract
A model of generator withholding is critical for analyses of market power. The California electricity market crisis of 2000-2001 saw increased utilization of fossil fuel plants. The stressed conditions could have affected normal outage rates. A hazard rate analysis applied to the Mirant generating plants indicates that higher utilization should increase outage rates. The predicted crisis outage rates should have been higher than the historical average. Actual outage rates were significantly lower than would be predicted based on pre-crisis behavior
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